Africa has often been considered a backwater by many politicians and diplomats, but over the past few years new geopolitical partnerships have been forming, and Western countries are at risk of losing out to China and Russia. While Western countries have appeared to lose focus on Africa over the last few decades, shifting their attention to domestic issues, China and Russia have been seeking to ‘fill the void’ and emerge as major players on the African continent. China has surpassed both the United States and the European Union as Africa’s biggest trading partner and source of investment, while Russia has become increasingly involved in military partnerships to counter Western influence.
Western countries failing in Africa
According to a recent report by Gallup World Poll, the United States has lost its place as the most influential power in Africa. In several sub-Saharan countries, Russia is now the dominant power in terms of approval ratings. It has been argued that one of the reasons for this is that Western countries are making their support conditional on values, failing to consider the continent’s self-perception and tradition. This has sometimes led to African countries perceiving the conditional Western aid as neo-colonialism, which has fuelled discontent. African countries are asking for understanding, equal treatment, and respect and they perceive that they are receiving it from countries such as Russia.
Experts also argue that the strategy of the US in Africa has prioritised short-term security by providing military and security assistance, and that this approach has not been effective. At the same time, European countries and institutions have been unable to provide a security alternative, as internal divisions between EU member states have undermined the coordination and effectiveness of its policies in Africa. According to a report by the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the EU’s position in Africa has been weakening for more than a decade. For example, in 1995, the EU and several North African countries proclaimed a strategy to create a Euro-Mediterranean partnership and the launch of a free trade zone by 2010. However, little progress has been made since and the region is less integrated and more conflict-ridden than it was in 1995.
According to a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), disappointment with Western countries and international organisations has been made worse by what African countries perceive as double standards. For example, the extensive Western support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion has fuelled discontent in African countries and is often viewed as a competition between the West and Russia. Many African leaders have noted the comparative indifference to conflicts in Africa and have concluded that they will not get the support and investments they need from the West. As a consequence, they have become increasingly active in finding new allies and support, including from Russia and China.
China’s interests in Africa
China has surpassed the US and the EU to become Africa’s largest trading partner and source of investment. Chinese companies have been reported to have signed contracts in Africa worth more than $700 billion between 2013 and 2023, and at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit in September 2024, Xi Jinping announced a commitment of more than $50 billion in financing for Africa over the following three years.
China uses its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to fund large-scale projects in African countries rich in natural resources, with a heavy focus on infrastructure like highways, ports, dams, and public networks like the power grid. Many of these projects are tied to agreements of Chinese companies financing and building the infrastructure in exchange for access to natural resources like minerals, oil and gas, or agricultural products. The contracts have often gone to Chinese state-owned enterprises such as Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank), China Railway Construction Corporation, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation. For example, in the so-called ‘Angola Model,’ Angola negotiated loans from China’s fully state-owned Eximbank that allowed the country to reject aid from the IMF and its recommendations. The credit was used to pay for infrastructure, built by Chinese companies, and guaranteed by Angola’s oil production. The arrangement led to Angola becoming the most indebted African country to China by 2021, with 72% of its entire oil exports going to China.
Such policy has sometimes been described as a ‘debt trap,’ a deliberate strategy of drawing the African countries into China’s sphere of influence via extensive loans. While this concept might be far-fetched, the possibility of China using debt geopolitically, to expand its influence and secure access to resources, cannot be dismissed either. Despite raising concerns over the BRI, both the US and the EU have failed to offer an alternative to BRI in Africa beyond opposing it.
Russia’s interests in Africa
Although Russia’s involvement in Africa is not yet comparable to that of China and the West, it is increasingly using the anti-Western sentiment to bolster its influence on the continent. Russia sees Africa as another vehicle to weaken Western dominance and a possible partner for its vision of a post-US-dominance ‘multipolar’ world order. Russia has undertaken diplomatic efforts to increase engagement in Africa, using high-level visits to deepen economic and military cooperation, and using military aid to secure its interests in the resources of the continent. Despite Western criticism, many African leaders have welcomed Russia’s efforts to expand economic cooperation. Russia aims to support its wartime economy by developing revenue from Africa that can avoid sanctions. Additionally, a significant number of Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers is registered in African countries.
Russia has signed contracts with over 30 African countries to supply armaments and military equipment. Russia’s Ministry of Defence has reorganised the country’s military presence in Africa, renaming the Wagner Group as the Africa Corps and bringing the group under its direct control. First deployed in 2018 to the Central African Republic, the Wagner Group/Africa Corps has a presence in several African countries, including Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, Sudan, and Libya. Anton Yelizarov, leader of the Africa Corps, stated in early 2024 that the unit will ‘defend the interests of the Russian Federation, and we will do this anywhere in the world.’
Closing thoughts
As Western countries aim to promote democracy, human rights, and good governance in Africa, often criticising African countries on these issues, and are sometimes perceived as having lost interest in Africa, China and Russia are looking to replace them as partners. China is focussing on infrastructure development, although it has been argued that the country’s primary goal with investments is geopolitical, not economic, with China’s BRI aiming to expand its economic influence in Africa. Russia’s interests in Africa are largely driven by its desire to counterbalance Western influence and demonstrate its global relevance. Russia seeks to expand its footprint in Africa, particularly in countries where Western influence is declining, and to find partners in establishing a new ‘multipolar’ world order.
