United States President Donald Trump’s agenda, proposed during his campaign in 2024, resurrected proposals from his first term, but his first two months in office appear to signal that he is prepared to go much further this time. In the short time he has tackled several key issues, including immigration, government funding, trade, and peace deals, in an approach that has tested the limits of executive authority and is antagonising allies as well as adversaries. On his first day of his second term, January 20th, 2025, Trump signed a record-setting 26 executive orders.

To date, his actions have included an aggressive immigration and deportation policy, cuts to federal spending, including dismantling some federal agencies and departments, a great expansion in tariffs on foreign goods that has threatened a global trade war, and foreign policy initiatives that have been described as a ‘shock and awe’ campaign to fashion a ‘new world order.’ Many of his actions have been criticised both domestically and internally, and questions have been raised about the legality of certain actions.

Trump’s interpretation of presidential power

Trump has taken a more expansive view of executive authority and is pushing the boundaries of presidential power in ways that are seen by many as unprecedented in US history. His approach, characterised by a conviction that the executive branch is for the President to rule alone, has been criticised as an overreach of executive power. Legal scholars and constitutional experts argue that Trump’s interpretation of Article II of the US Constitution, which vests executive power in the President, is overly broad and not supported by historical or legal precedent. He has made decisions that legal experts argue are overstepping constitutional boundaries, including attempts to withhold funds allocated by Congress, deport migrants without due process, and fire federal workers, while challenging judicial rulings.

These actions have led to significant tension between Trump’s administration and the judiciary, with courts issuing restraining orders and injunctions that have halted or delayed his policies, leading to Trump’s escalating rhetoric against them. In March 2025, Trump called for Supreme Court action against judges who blocked his orders, after a federal judge blocked the deportation of Venezuelan migrants. Trump and his allies have also called for impeaching federal judges who rule against the administration, raising concerns about the independence of the judiciary and the potential for a constitutional crisis. John Roberts, Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, and legal experts have stressed that the proper process is through the appeals process, not impeachment. 

Immigration and border security

Trump had promised to carry out the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in US history and on his first day in office, issued ten executive orders aimed at overhauling US immigration law and policy. These included declaring a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, tasking the US military and Border Patrol with repelling illegal immigration, and significantly expanding enforcement powers. The orders also proposed a plan involving private contractors and ‘processing camps’ to expedite deportations. The new administration also turned over several Biden-era policies and decisions, including by revoking the legal status of over 500,000 immigrants from Latin America and rescinding guidelines that prevented immigration officers from entering ‘sensitive’ areas, such as schools and places of worship.

While the policies could escalate tensions with Mexico and other Latin American countries, and the proposed mass deportation is likely to face legal opposition, they seem to have led to the lowest number of border crossings ever recorded. In January 2025, US Customs and Border Protection data showed a significant decrease in border encounters, with the number of apprehensions along the southern border dropping 85% compared to the same period in 2024 and nationwide border encounters decreasing by 66% compared to January 2024. 

Government efficiency

Trump has proposed budget cuts to reduce the federal deficit and has launched initiatives to improve government efficiency, focusing on reducing the size of the federal workforce and cutting waste. This includes the potential merger or dissolution of agencies with overlapping functions. He established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, to address wasteful spending, with Musk suggesting that the federal budget could be reduced by ‘at least’ $2 trillion. The cost-cutting initiatives include a planned dissolution of the US Department of Education, freezing US foreign aid and shutting down USAID, as well as scaling down the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) that monitors cyber threats against the US.

Some of the efforts have been seen as controversial and are now facing legal challenges and public opposition. Their success will also depend on the cooperation of Congress, as the US Constitution gives Congress the power over the federal budget. For example, USAID employees filed lawsuits after DOGE was given access to the agency’s payment and email systems and had placed much of its staff on leave. This resulted in a federal judge ruling that the actions likely violated the US Constitution. Concerns over national security were also raised after DOGE fired employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), responsible for managing the country’s nuclear stockpile and ensuring the safety and security of nuclear weapons. The NNSA decision was later reversed, after it became clear that the workers dealt with sensitive national security secrets. The decision to set out new priorities for CISA, which notably excludes monitoring Russia, and an order for the US Cyber Command to pause offensive cyber operations against Russia has also raised concerns among critics who say that it enables a known adversary that has repeatedly launched cyberattacks against the US.

Tariffs and economy

Trump has been following his ‘America First’ economic policies aimed at boosting domestic production and employment. He imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports and 20% tariffs on imports from China. He also imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, subsequently exempting imports covered by the USMCA trade deal until April 2nd, 2025. Trump has threatened the European Union with plans to impose 25% ‘reciprocal tariffs,’ set to come into force on April 2nd, 2025. He has also used tariffs as leverage to secure agreements with other countries, such as threatening Colombia with massive tariffs in January 2025, when the country announced it would not accept deportation flights from the US.

The tariffs have led to retaliation, with China imposing tariffs on US agricultural and food products, impacting US farmers who are a significant power base for Trump. The EU has also announced retaliatory tariffs, originally scheduled to begin on April 1st, 2025. It later delayed the implementation until mid-April, to give additional time for negotiations with the US. Canada has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on up to $155bn in US imports after the current exemption is set to expire. Mexico also threatened to introduce retaliatory tariffs, while pledging to work with the US to avoid confrontation. Trump further muddied the situation on March 24, 2025, saying he will be ‘more lenient than reciprocal.’

The tit-for-tat tariffs have sparked significant tension between the US and its allies and increased fears of an economic downturn. The uncertainty about Trump’s tariff policy and US economic outlook has already caused fluctuations in the stock market and a decline in consumer confidence. Markets fear that tariffs will cause higher inflation and the sell-off reflects growing concerns over the economic implications of the trade war that could lead to recession. This in turn could have significant consequences, including job losses and financial strain on households in the US, with a potential of influencing the administration’s future policies.

Foreign policy

Trump’s foreign policy is also characterised by his ‘America First’ agenda, with a focus on transactional relationships and leveraging what he calls ‘peace through strength.’ This approach has been described as breaking the post-1945 rules-based international order, focusing instead on bilateral relations. Trump has a highly personal approach to foreign policy, with decisions often made with little input from the US State Department and more reliance on his advisors. This approach has led to episodes such as the US voting with North Korea and Syria against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine War

The US continues to be heavily involved in peace discussions for the Russia-Ukraine war, with Trump having vowed to end the war quickly during his election campaign. In early March 2025, Trump called Putin to begin negotiations on a Ukraine peace deal, leading peace talks without involving Ukraine or NATO’s European allies – a move that sparked concerns across Europe. Although Trump has repeatedly claimed to have had good conversations with the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine, the ceasefire and peace seem to be far away. While Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accepted the US proposal for a ceasefire on the frontline and is ready to implement the energy and infrastructure ceasefire, Russia is sticking to its maximalist demands set out before the 2022 invasion. The US is aiming for a truce by Easter (April 20th, 2025), while Russia appears to be dragging out the peace negotiations in order to seize as much territory as it can and getting an upper hand over Ukraine in the negotiations.

What the negotiations have shown is a more business-like approach to brokering peace, with Trump’s aims for ending the war directly related to freeing US resources for countering China (and Iran). This is likely to include efforts to stop or at least limit the China-Russia ‘friendship without limits,’ declared by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in February 2022. The reality of this relationship is assessed to be more nuanced, reflecting China’s strategic interests in maintaining a relationship with Russia while avoiding direct confrontation with the West. Officials from the US and Russia have also agreed not only to work on ending the war in Ukraine, but also to cooperate on financial investment and re-establishing normal relations. Russia appears to use the renewed talks to accommodate Trump’s interest in ‘deals’ and resources, arguing that US oil companies and others stood to gain hundreds of billions of dollars by doing business in Russia once again.

Israel-Hamas War

In January 2025, Trump proposed an idea of the US ‘owning’ and redeveloping Gaza into a ‘Riviera of the Middle East,’ relocating Palestinians to neighbouring Egypt and Jordan. While both Arab leaders and US allies condemned the plan, Trump later clarified that he does not advocate for the forced deportation of civilians. Instead, he emphasised rebuilding Gaza and ensuring peace in the region. His administration also said that Trump’s idea was less of a definitive plan of action than an attempt to provoke Arab leaders into suggesting a viable alternative, with the Arab countries eventually presenting their own plan. However, the plan proposed by them does not explain how Hamas would cede power and has been rejected by Israel’s government.

Hegemony in the West

Trump also appears to aim for reasserting US hegemony in the Western hemisphere. He has suggested acquiring Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and reclaiming the Panama Canal. These ideas have all faced significant opposition, both at home and internationally. The leaders of Canada, Panama, Denmark, Greenland, and the EU have rejected them, while in the US the Democrats have introduced the No Invading Allies Act, which aims to prohibit funds for the US Armed Forces ‘to engage in operations to invade or seize territory from Canada, Greenland, or Panama.’ Critics have also argued that the administration’s transactional approach might result in facilitating the expansion of China’s influence, especially in developing countries.

Closing thoughts: 66 days of US-president Trump

In his address to Congress on March 4th, 2025, Trump explained his early actions as necessary to restore the strength of the US, stating that his administration is ‘just getting started.’ Trump’s administration appears ready to reshape the US economic priorities, defence strategies, and alliances on an unprecedented scale and this era of ‘new world order’ will require other countries to reassess their approach to the US. While it is widely agreed that Trump’s actions are unprecedented, as declared by himself as well, he might, in reality, be just transparent. According to Trump’s team, his approach is based in ‘realism’ and the belief that concepts such as shared values and international norms cannot replace ‘hard power.’ Interestingly, this echoes Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who has for a long time been advocating for a new ‘multipolar world order’ where Russia plays a leading role.

Trump’s approach has been described as that of a businessman who operates with a competitive and transactional mindset, often framing negotiations as ‘dealmaking.’ Trump is not known for caution and is not afraid to use confrontation to achieve his goals. Quite the opposite, he might be cultivating an image of being unpredictable and ‘crazy’ to strengthen his negotiating position. People familiar with Trump argue that he negotiates to win and rarely backtracks. However, he might change the course if a new proposal looks more appealing. The ‘art of the deal’ of negotiating with Trump is reportedly to firstly never cross an ‘invisible’ line on the one side, of which he is the winner and on the other the loser, and secondly, find an attractive deal (a win-win deal), where he can claim victory while praising the other party for their negotiating skills.

The cut-off for reporting was March 26th, 2025. For information on more recent developments, sign up to our Geopolitical Risk Briefs.