The collapse of the Assad regime on December 8th, 2024, after just 12 days of fighting between the Syrian army and a coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), supported by the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, put an end to the 13-year-long civil war in Syria. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, fled to Russia along with his family, where he was granted asylum. The rebel victory ended the rule of the Assad family, who had been in power since 1970 and was supported by Russia and Iran. The regime’s collapse is expected to have a significant impact on the regional power dynamics in the Middle East but also the wider Mediterranean region and Africa. The international community has cautiously welcomed the fall of Assad’s regime as an opportunity for a new beginning, however, questions remain about authoritarianism and a potential further conflict.
Syria under Assad was a key ally of Iran and Russia and provided a strategic foothold for both. The exhaustion of these allies, with Russia focused on Ukraine and Iran facing its own challenges, most likely contributed to the fall. The regime’s collapse additionally weakened Iran’s influence in the region, particularly its ability to provide weapons to Hezbollah. Russia’s military presence in Syria, including its naval and air bases, is also at risk, with reports emerging that Syria’s new leadership is eyeing ‘strategic’ ties with Ukraine. The loss of these bases could severely impact Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean and Africa. The fall of Assad could also lead to fragmentation and chaos in Syria. Syria will be ruled by Sunnis for the first time in 60 years, and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab countries are likely looking for influence in the new Syria, aiming to diminish Iran’s Shiite influence in the region.
The impact of Syria’s regime change on Russia
Syria under the rule of the Assad family remained a faithful ally to Russia. Russia’s intervention helped Bashar al-Assad to stay in power following the Arab Spring and the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, resulting in various actors in the region seeing Russia as a counterforce to the United States. Russia’s intervention helped it to project an image of a great power and a reliable supporter, with the country leveraging this reputation to cultivate close ties with autocratic regimes in Africa and beyond. Before the lightning offensive by Syrian opposition in November and December 2024, Russia, together with Iran, appeared to have stabilised Assad’s regime and established their own influence in the region.
The quick collapse of the regime is a serious setback for Russia’s prestige and is likely to severely diminish its ability to project power in the region. Russia had invested heavily in Assad and considered Syria as a crucial part of its confrontation with what they call ‘Western imperialism.’ Its reputation as a power broker has now been corroded, given its inability to prevent Assad’s downfall despite the military support. Russia’s lease for its naval base in Tartus has just been terminated, while questions remain about the country’s airbase in Hmeimim. Both bases are crucial for Russia’s military operations in the Mediterranean and beyond, with Russia’s military operations in Africa having heavily relied on logistical support from Syria. Whilst Russia is likely to be negotiating with the new Syrian government, seeking to retain control of them, reports have emerged that Syria’s new leadership is looking for ‘strategic’ ties with Ukraine instead. The country’s weakened position could also affect its ability to support Iran’s regional ambitions and its influence in the Middle East more broadly. Russia will likely seek to mitigate this through diplomacy, such as through the recent strategic partnership treaty signed by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The impact of Syria’s regime change on Iran
The fall of the Assad regime is also a significant blow to Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Syria was a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy in the predominantly Sunni Middle East that has been largely unfriendly towards Shiite Iran and had an important role in supporting the country’s proxies. Syria served as a crucial land corridor for supplying weapons and material to Hezbollah in Lebanon. With the collapse of Assad’s regime, Iran lost a key pillar of the so-called ‘Shiite Crescent’ – an alliance between Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah and Syria.
From Iran’s perspective, the collapse of Assad’s regime is exacerbated by the fact that Israel’s military campaign had already severely weakened Hezbollah and Hamas. While Iran is unlikely to abandon its proxy strategy, for now, the Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen are the two remaining branches of its ‘Axis of Resistance’ that have not been significantly weakened. However, Iran’s unwillingness to intervene in support of Assad or meaningfully support Hezbollah against Israel, could lead them to questioning if Iran would ultimately view them as expendable.
Iran had also invested billions of dollars over the past decade in supporting Assad’s regime and the loss of this investment could fuel domestic discontent in Iran. Reports have also emerged that Assad’s fall has revived hope for change among Iranians opposed to the hard-line Islamist leadership. The concerns of Iran’s regime about a potential domino effect prompted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make a public statement, warning that ‘anyone whose analysis or statements dishearten the people is committing a crime and will be dealt with.’
The impact of Syria’s regime change on Turkey
Assad’s fall has shifted the regional power dynamics in favour of Turkey. Turkey supported the Syrian opposition after the Arab Spring in 2011 and is likely to be working to establish a friendly government, having the strongest history and channels of communication with them. Turkey is likely to welcome the end of Russia’s military presence in Syria and some experts argue that far from being allies, Turkey and Russia are competitors. Turkey’s success in Syria could enhance its influence in Africa, where it has sometimes been seen as having a rivalry with Russia. Both Russia and Turkey backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war and competed for influence in Libya, where Russia supported the east Libya military commander Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey backed the internationally recognised government of Libya in Tripoli.
Turkey may now also have an opportunity for reconciliation with the US. The civil war in Syria had further complicated the relationship between the two counties, with the US decision in 2014 to support the People’s Protection Units of Syrian Kurds (YPG) seen as a turning point. Turkey, who considers the YPG a terrorist organisation, felt betrayed by the decision of its NATO ally to support its enemy. Turkey has long sought the withdrawal of US forces from Syria and there are speculations that US President Donald Trump might agree to a deal in which Turkey commits to containing ISIS in exchange of the US withdrawing its troops from Syria.
At the same time, there is also a risk of a resurgence of ISIS, as the organisation could attempt to capitalise on the uncertainty and try to reestablish itself. Turkey is particularly vulnerable to terror attacks, as it is home to active ISIS networks. Its promise to contain ISIS could be challenging for the country if the terrorist group indeed manages to reestablish itself.
The impact of Syria’s regime change on Israel
Syria under the Assad regime was a resolute enemy of Israel and became a transit corridor for Iran’s support to Hezbollah. However, while Assad’s fall could lead to a less hostile environment, by weakening Iran’s influence and further isolating Hezbollah, it has also introduced uncertainty. The regime’s fall has brought new challenges related to Israel’s border with Syria and the potential for conflict with new Syrian authorities. Under Assad, there were no Israel-Syria border clashes for decades, and after the Hamas’ terror attack in 2023, Syria did not attack Israel or allow attacks from its territory. To counter the potential risk of fragmentation or power vacuum in Syria, Israel seized control of Mount Hermon and the buffer zone monitored by the United Nations in Syria. While Israel called the deployment defensive and temporary, it is prepared to stay as long as security conditions necessitate it. The move has been condemned by many, with critics accusing Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire and exploiting the chaos for a land grab in Syria, which could provoke retaliation from new Syrian authorities or local forces seeking to reclaim the territory. Israel’s concern about weapons of the collapsed Syrian army, including chemical weapons, potentially falling into the hands of Islamists also prompted extensive airstrikes against military bases and research centres around Syria to destroy these stockpiles.
The impact of Syria’s regime change on the West
The US and the European Union have welcomed the collapse of the Assad regime. The civil war in Syria caused a significant refugee wave and EU countries are likely hoping that Assad’s fall could lead to Syrian refugees returning home. However, the potential fragmentation or chaos in Syria could lead to a new wave of refugees and affect EU and NATO member states in the Mediterranean. This potential instability could also spread to Africa, particularly to countries with ongoing conflicts or fragile governments. There is also a risk that the fall of Assad’s regime could lead to a resurgence or increase of terrorist activity in the region, with groups such as ISIS potentially seeking to exploit the situation. On the other hand, the potential loss of its bases in Syria could constrain Russia’s ability to support its operations in Africa and provide an opportunity for the US, NATO, and EU to counter its influence in Africa.
Assad Regime’s Fall and its Impact on Geopolitics in the Middle East and Africa: Closing thoughts
The international community and regional powers must now navigate the complexities of the transition to a post-Assad Syria. This could present significant challenges, including the risk of instability and extremism. The HTS-led coalition has not provided many details about its plans for Syria, and there are concerns that it may try to establish a hardline Islamist regime. While the HTS-led coalition has promised to form an inclusive government and civil institutions, any deviance from this may will lead to isolation, and an isolated Syria could fall back into violent chaos.
Syria will ultimately need international support and foreign investment for reconstruction, as has been pointed out by Syria’s new foreign ministry, Asaad al-Shaibani, at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos. If the Western countries are unwilling to lift the existing sanctions, the new Syrian government may be forced to work with governments that would overlook such concerns, such as Iran, or turn back to Russia. At the same time, Turkey is likely working to deepen its ties with the new Syrian government, with the aim of turning Syria into a more pro-Turkey country, which will significantly impede Iran’s ability to build a working relationship with the new government.
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