2024 is the busiest election year on record, with people in more than 50 countries, including eight of the world’s 10 most populous nations, and nearly half of the world’s population heading to polls. The outcomes of the 2024 unprecedented election cycle will have significant implications for politics for the second half of the decade. Key elections will influence international relations, trade agreements, and green commitments, with the economic outlook casting a shadow over polls in many countries. A report by the World Economic Forum states that 2024 could be a ‘tumultuous year,’ with the backdrop of war and economic shocks increasing potential geopolitical risks. Geopolitical volatility is also one of the main risks identified in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024. This blog aims to provide a mid-year snapshot of notable elections and highlight key trends and implications.
European Parliament Elections in June
The European Parliament elections in June, with a turnout of 51.05%, the highest since 1994, saw a significant rise in support for right-wing parties, with the results prompting France’s President Emmanuel Macron to announce a snap election. The results were influenced by voters’ top concerns of economy, migration, and international conflicts, while issues such as climate change were further down the list, resulting in Europe’s green parties facing some of the biggest losses. Although the so-called ‘grand coalition’ between the centre-right European People’s Party, the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the liberal Renew Europe group retained its majority, the narrower majority could lead to reliance on ad-hoc alliances. This is because the European Parliament works through coalitions formed according to the legislation being discussed. The shift to the right is also expected to lead to a more conservative agenda in EU policymaking, affecting issues such as migration and the European Green Deal. Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected as President of the European Commission despite concerns that Macron’s snap elections in France and Olaf Scholz’s weakened position in Germany could derail her nomination.
Legislative Election in France in June
France held a snap election at the end of June and the beginning of July, with President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call elections widely seen as a gamble. The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing coalition hastily drawn up for the snap election, won the second round, claiming 275 seats in the French National Assembly. Macron’s Ensemble came in second, while the National Rally (RN), the far-right party led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, finished third. The outcome was a significant shift from the first round of voting, with the RN having hoped to win an absolute majority in the second round. The election resulted in a hung parliament – a first for modern France – with no party winning a clear majority to govern without coalition partners.
The results of the election in France have set the stage for potentially lengthy coalition negotiations and contentious governance in the coming years. Some observers have questioned NFP’s ability to govern without disintegrating, pointing to the fact that the previous leftist coalition, the New Ecological and Social People’s Union, fell apart in 2023 over differences on the Israel-Hamas war. The outcome has been seen as at least a temporary pushback against the ongoing far-right surge in Europe, however, despite the defeat, Le Pen expressed optimism about the future and some experts warn that remaining out of power could allow the NR to grow stronger as a protest movement.
General Election in the United Kingdom in July
In July, the Labour Party won a landslide victory in the United Kingdom general election, returning to power after 14 years in opposition, with Sir Keir Starmer becoming the new Prime Minister. Voter turnout was the lowest since 2001 and Labour’s victory has been described by some as the most distorted in history, with the party winning 63.7% of the seats with a vote share of 33.9%. The results are seen as a significant shift in British politics, with Labour winning its largest majority since the 1990s and the Conservatives suffering their worst electoral defeat in history. Labour has pledged to increase state involvement in the economy, renationalise passenger rail and there are plans to set up a state-owned energy company. However, the government will face challenges as the party’s commitment to reducing public debt within five years and ruling out borrowing to fund growth limits its ability to increase spending. The party also pledged no major tax increases, leaving the government with little room to manoeuvre in the budget. Labour has spoken about renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU; however, the party does not plan to reverse Brexit or re-join the EU’s single market or customs union.
General Election in India in June
India’s 44-day-long general election in June resulted in the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bhratiya Janata Party (BJP) losing its majority for the first time. Nevertheless, BJP’s coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, primarily backed by regional parties, secured 293 of 543 seats, paving the way for Modi’s third term as Prime Minister. The biggest loss for BJP came in many of the more rural areas of India, where voters from underprivileged castes and tribes voted for the opposition. Since Modi took office in 2014, India has grown from the 10th-largest economy to the fifth, though the living standards for many remain low. Modi’s authoritarian streak has drawn criticism at home and abroad after he cracked down on independent journalism, political dissidents, Kashmir, and Indian Muslims.
Presidential Election in Venezuela in July
The incumbent President Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner of the presidential election in July by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council. However, the opposition disputed the outcome, as prior exit polls suggested opposition candidate Henri Falcon would win 65% of the vote, while Maduro was expected to receive 31%. Following the election, thousands of people took to the streets to protest, with security forces cracking down on the demonstrations, leading to the arrest of more than 2,000 individuals. While Maduro’s allies, including Russia, Cuba, Honduras, and China, have congratulated Maduro, other countries have expressed doubts regarding the outcome and legitimacy of the election. Maduro and his government have rejected these claims of fraud and accused the US of attempting to undermine the democratic process. The election dispute has led to a deepening political crisis in the country, with the opposition calling for new elections and international pressure mounting on the government to address concerns about the legitimacy of the results.
General Election in Mexico in June
In June, Mexico held its largest-ever general election, with almost 98 million registered voters casting ballots. The election was the most violent in Mexico’s modern history, with 38 candidates murdered. Claudia Sheinbaum, a left-leaning scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, emerged as the winner and became the country’s first female president. Seen as a political protege of the outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum secured the highest vote percentage in the history of Mexico. Sheinbaum has rejected opposition claims that she would be a ‘puppet’ of Obrador, however, she has pledged to expand the welfare policies that drove Obrador’s popularity, a complex task with Mexico’s heavy budget deficit and low economic growth. Furthermore, she will face the challenge of negotiations with the US regarding the flow of migrants crossing the US-Mexico border and seeking security cooperation over drug trafficking. Mexican officials expect these negotiations to be more difficult if Donald Trump wins the November 2024 US presidential election.
Presidential Election in Taiwan in January
On January 13th, 2024, incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidential election in Taiwan and pledged to protect Taiwan from ‘threats and intimidation’ by China. The election took place amid tensions between Taiwan and China, with the Chinese government describing it as a choice between ‘peace and war’ and criticising Lai as a ‘separatist.’ However, while China’s main point of focus was an attempt at independence, for Taiwan’s voters, issues such as cost of living and stagnant wages were more important. Lai has reiterated his desire for talks with China following his victory, however, the election is unlikely to reduce tensions, with China having severed official communication with Taiwan’s government since 2016, when the DPP first came to power.
General Election in South Africa in May
In May, the African National Congress (ANC), having been in power for 30 years, experienced its worst election result since the end of apartheid in South Africa. The ANC remained the largest party but lost the parliamentary majority, winning less than 42% of the vote. ANC’s decline is attributed to voter dissatisfaction over unemployment, power cuts, violent crime and crumbling infrastructure. Young voters who did not live through apartheid are said to be particularly disillusioned with the ANC and the country’s economic prospects, with one in three South Africans of working age being unemployed, rising to nearly half for people aged between 15 and 34. Analysts say that many feel economically disfranchised in Africa’s most industrialised country that has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the most unequal in the world.
Presidential Election in Russia in March
In March, the incumbent President Vladimir Putin won the presidential election, claiming 87.3% of the vote on a record turnout of 77.5%, according to Russia’s Central Election Commission. There was little question about the outcome ahead of the election as Putin faced no credible opposition, with potential challengers either imprisoned, exiled, or dead and none of the other three candidates considered serious contenders. Independent observers described the backdrop of the election as the most severe crackdown on opposition and free speech since Soviet times. Helped by near-total government domination of Russia’s media, Putin’s personal approval rating remains high after nearly 25 years in power and, while the extent of true support is hard to judge, his approval rating ahead of the election was reported at over 80%, a substantial increase from before the war with Ukraine. Putin is likely to use his new term to continue the war and continue to cement his control of Russian politics, transforming Russia into increasingly authoritarian and militaristic society.
Closing thoughts: The upcoming election in the US
What all the above discussed elections have shown is that people globally expect ‘real’ changes to be implemented by their governments that can be felt by the common citizen. Many of the voters in these recent elections have focused on economic frustrations, as evident in the votes that were cast. Throughout the Western democratic world, the far-right has seen a surge in recent years and months amid sluggish economic growth, often-times linked to the ongoing immigration challenges. Then there are other elections, such as those in Russia and Venezuela, that have also raised concerns about freedom and fairness, with opposition parties facing restrictions or suppression.
However, national elections do not occur in a vacuum and will have far reaching consequences for global politics and international relations. The upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 in particular has potential implications for global affairs and the direction of the world’s largest economy. While the presidential race initially saw current US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump as the two main candidates, on July 21st, 2024, Biden announced he would be ending his re-election campaign and backed current Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Biden’s withdrawal marks the first time since 1968 that an incumbent president has stepped down from seeking re-election and his exit less than a month before the Democratic convention and only four months before the polling day is unprecedented, prompting observations that the US is ‘in uncharted waters.’
Trump’s campaign appears to have been boosted by the news of Biden’s withdrawal, and by the attempted assassination attempt on July 13th, 2024, during a Republican rally. However, Harris appears to already be gaining a slight lead, alongside her newly appointed running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a strategic move said to aid in gaining votes in critical swing regions. Based on current trends, Harris is expected to maintain a lead over Trump in the election amidst ongoing efforts by Trump and his allies to challenge Harris and Walz, and sow doubt about the election process, voicing concerns over disinformation. However, the results that will influence world affairs, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the instability in the Middle East, remain to be seen.
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